I told you so 😉 — Here's why I asked buyers to wait until after July

I get to say something today that I promise I'll only say once: I told you so. 😉

Since January I've given my buyers the same advice, over and over, in every monthly email — if you're not in a rush, wait until after July before you buy. A few of you got tired of hearing it. Fair enough. But the June numbers are in now, and they made the case for me.

The bet I made in January

Back at the start of the year, my read came down to three things:

1. Prices would probably keep sliding.
2. Inventory would probably keep building.
3. July's trade negotiations could sit on the Canadian economy and keep buyers cautious.

None of that needed a crystal ball. It needed patience — which, in a falling market, is the one advantage a buyer actually controls.

June 2026: the proof

Here's the part that tells the whole story. Sales went up in June, and prices still fell in every category. When more homes trade hands and prices keep dropping at the same time, it means one thing: sellers are giving up price to get a deal done.

According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS' June 2026 report, the MLS® benchmark for each home type looked like this:

Source: GVR Monthly Market Report, June 2026.

The composite benchmark across all types sat at $1,099,100 — down 6% in a year, and roughly 12% under the 2022 peak. Meanwhile sales came in at 2,390, up 9.6% from June 2025. More buyers, lower prices. Read that twice.

A few more numbers worth keeping in your pocket:

• 17,017 homes were for sale at month end, per the same GVR report — around 30% above the 10-year average. That inventory is your leverage, not the seller's.
• The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, its sixth straight hold. Borrowing costs aren't jumping around while you shop, which is exactly the calm backdrop a careful buyer wants.

So is this the time to buy?

I'll be straight with you, same as always. My honest answer is still "wait and see."

But here's the part that changed. If you genuinely need a home — a real place to live for years, not a bet — you should start looking now. We're entering what I'd call a relatively safe zone for owner-occupiers.

"Safe zone" does not mean the bottom. I want to be clear about that, because I won't sell you a fairy tale. Prices may keep grinding lower into 2028, maybe 2029. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom, and anyone who tells you they can call it is guessing. What I can tell you is that the fast-money era of Vancouver real estate — buy today, flip in eighteen months — is done. Today's buyer needs a different playbook.

Buy slowly. 🐢 Buy safely. 🛡️ Buy for your own use. 🏡

The slow-and-safe buyer's playbook

This is the exact approach I walk through with every buyer right now.

Get pre-approved, then take your time. A 120-day rate hold lets you shop without staring at the rate board every morning. You can renew it as often as you need, and it costs you nothing. Use it.

Keep every subject. Financing, inspection, strata review — all of it. In this market you don't have to waive conditions to win an offer, so don't. Waiving protection made sense in a bidding frenzy. This is the opposite of a frenzy.

Negotiate like the market is on your side, because it is. Sellers are trading price for transactions right now. That means price, completion dates, what stays in the home, repair credits — everything is on the table. Ask for it.

Read the strata documents line by line. The depreciation report, the contingency fund balance, the last two years of minutes. I go through these with every buyer before we write an offer, because this is where both the risks and the bargains hide. A cheap-looking condo with an underfunded reserve isn't cheap.

Think in a 5-to-10-year horizon, not a flip. If prices keep drifting down, time spent in a home you actually need beats trying to time the exact bottom and missing it. That's the whole point of the safe zone: you're buying a life, not a trade.

If you own in a transit-served pocket like Metrotown or Brentwood and you're weighing a move within Burnaby, the same math applies — sell into strength where you can, buy where the leverage has shifted to you.

First time buying? Start here

"Begin exploring" doesn't mean racing to an offer. It means learning the process while time is on your side — which, for the first time in years, it is.

My free, step-by-step Home Buyer Guide walks you through all eight stages: choosing your REALTOR®, setting a real budget, searching, writing offers, negotiating, subject removal, closing, and moving in. Plain language. No pressure.

Key Takeaways

• Metro Vancouver's June 2026 benchmark fell across every home type — condos $695,200, townhomes $1,046,200, detached $1,842,900 — even as sales rose 9.6% year-over-year.
• More sales plus lower prices means sellers are trading price for transactions. The leverage has moved to buyers.
• Inventory (about 17,017 listings) sits roughly 30% above the 10-year average, and the Bank of Canada is holding at 2.25%.
• Owner-occupiers who genuinely need a home are entering a relatively safe zone — but "safe zone" is not the same as "the bottom."
• The playbook now is slow and safe: pre-approve, keep your subjects, negotiate hard, read the strata docs, and think in years, not months.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to buy in Metro Vancouver?

If you need a home for your own long-term use, June 2026 is a relatively safe zone: benchmark prices are down about 6% year-over-year, inventory is roughly 30% above the 10-year average, and the Bank of Canada is holding rates at 2.25%. If you're speculating on a quick flip, it isn't — prices may keep drifting lower into 2028.

Why did prices fall in June 2026 if sales went up?

Because sellers are trading price for transactions. Sales rose 9.6% year-over-year while benchmark prices slipped again in every category, which happens when sellers accept lower offers to get deals done. It's a classic buyer's-market signal.

Will Metro Vancouver home prices keep falling?

They may. In my view prices could keep grinding lower into 2028, possibly 2029 — but nobody can call the exact bottom. That's why I tell owner-occupiers to buy for use over a 5-to-10-year horizon rather than trying to time it perfectly.

Should I waive conditions to win an offer right now?

No. With inventory about 30% above the 10-year average, you have negotiating room. Keep your financing, inspection, and strata-review subjects. You don't need to waive protection to win in a buyer's market.

Sources

• Greater Vancouver REALTORS — Monthly Market Report, June 2026 — benchmark prices, sales, active listings.
• Bank of Canada — Policy Interest Rate — 2.25% hold, July 15, 2026 (sixth consecutive).

---

Let's build your slow-and-safe buying plan together. Book a free, 30-minute consultation with zero pressure — we'll look at your timeline, your budget, and whether the safe zone makes sense for you. And if my honest advice is "keep waiting," that's exactly what I'll tell you.

Start with a no-obligation valuation if you're selling to buy, or reach out directly to set up a chat. You can also call or text me at 778-991-0051.

Talk soon — and thanks for joining me on this journey. ☀️

Jersey Li, The Apartment Guy® · Medallion Club Member (Top 10% REALTOR®, 2024 & 2025) · Jersey Li Personal Real Estate Corporation, Sutton Group — 1st West Realty.